| Earthquake Awareness and Preparedness |
New Madrid Fault
 | Buried sand-blow deposits within the Mississippi River Valley are believed to be the by- | |
| product of strong ground shaking associated with large past earthquakes. | ||
| Several of the largest historical earthquakes to strike the continental United States occurred | |
| in the winter of 1811-1812 from the New Madrid Fault. | ||
| The three main earthquakes of magnitude 7.0-8.0 occurred on December 16, 1811; January | |
| 23, 1812; and February 7, 1812. | ||
| The New Madrid Fault stretches from the west of Memphis in Tennessee into Southern | |
| Illinois and consists of three fault segments: the northeast and the southwest segments which are strike-slip fault lines, and the central segment known as the Reelfoot which is a thrust fault. Figure 2 shows my best-estimate dimensions and locations of the southwest and Reelfoot faults along with the location of the metropolitan areas of St. Louis, Missouri, and Memphis, Tennessee. | ||
| Any New Madrid Fault segment can generate a magnitude 7.7 earthquake as predicted by the | |
| USGS. | ||
| The region of potential impact due to earthquake activity from the New Madrid Fault is | |
| comprised of eight states: Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee. |
Earthquake Prediction in the Midwest
Earthquake prediction in the Midwest is an ongoing state-of-the-art research by the United States
Geological Survey (USGS), and the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) at the
University of Memphis. USGS and CERI predict a 25-40% probability of having an earthquake magnitude of
6.0 or greater generated from the New Madrid Fault during the next 50 years. A New Madrid Earthquake of
magnitude 7.0-8.0 similar to any of the three large earthquakes of 1811-1812 has a 7-10% probability of
occurrence in the same time frame. A moderate-to-large New Madrid Earthquake would cause substantial
earthquake damage to buildings in Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky, and Illinois, especially for unreinforced
masonry construction in Memphis, TN.
Earthquake prediction in the Midwest is an ongoing state-of-the-art research by the United States
Geological Survey (USGS), and the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) at the
University of Memphis. USGS and CERI predict a 25-40% probability of having an earthquake magnitude of
6.0 or greater generated from the New Madrid Fault during the next 50 years. A New Madrid Earthquake of
magnitude 7.0-8.0 similar to any of the three large earthquakes of 1811-1812 has a 7-10% probability of
occurrence in the same time frame. A moderate-to-large New Madrid Earthquake would cause substantial
earthquake damage to buildings in Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky, and Illinois, especially for unreinforced
masonry construction in Memphis, TN.
| The region surrounding the New Madrid Fault is home to millions of people, including those in the | |
| metropolitan areas of St. Louis Missouri and Memphis Tennessee, where most buildings were not built to withstand earthquake ground shaking. Earthquake damage to buildings in Memphis is expected to be extensive due to its large number of highly-vulnerable unreinforced masonry homes that will be significantly affected. In addition, earthquake awareness and earthquake preparedness in the Midwestern States have lagged far behind the West Coast. |
Economic Loss and Earthquake Damage
Economic impact on each of the eight Midwestern States from worst-case earthquake scenarios of the
New Madrid Fault and the WVSZ has been predicted by a recent research study conducted by the Mid-
America Earthquake (MAE) Center at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign utilizing the USGS
predicted magnitudes of 7.7 for the New Madrid Earthquake and 7.1 for the Wabash Valley Earthquake.
Economic loss and earthquake damage prediction as follows:
Indirect economic losses due to business interpretation and loss of market share may be much higher
than the direct economic losses. For comparison, the insured damages from Hurricane Katrina in 2005,
the largest single natural disaster in recent years, were $45 billion. Additional federal aid and
reconstruction expenditures were $127 billion.
Economic impact on each of the eight Midwestern States from worst-case earthquake scenarios of the
New Madrid Fault and the WVSZ has been predicted by a recent research study conducted by the Mid-
America Earthquake (MAE) Center at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign utilizing the USGS
predicted magnitudes of 7.7 for the New Madrid Earthquake and 7.1 for the Wabash Valley Earthquake.
Economic loss and earthquake damage prediction as follows:
| Tennessee would incur the highest level of economic loss, earthquake damage, and social | |
| impact. Over 250,000 buildings are expected to be moderately or severely damaged from rupture of the southwestern segment of the New Madrid Fault. Over 260,000 people would be displaced and over 60,000 casualties (injuries and fatalities). Total direct economic losses surpass $56 billion. | ||
| Missouri would also incur substantial economic loss and earthquake damage. Over 80,000 | |
| buildings are expected to be damaged leaving more than 120,000 people displaced, and causing over 15,000 casualties. Total direct economic losses reach $40 billion. | ||
| Kentucky and Illinois are expected to incur significant losses with total direct economic losses | |
| reaching approximately $45 and $35 billion, respectively. | ||
| Arkansas and Mississippi would incur nearly $19 and $9.5 billion in direct economic loss, | |
| respectively. | ||
| Indiana and Alabama would experience limited earthquake damage and total direct economic | |
| losses of approximately $1.5 and $1.0 billion, respectively. |
than the direct economic losses. For comparison, the insured damages from Hurricane Katrina in 2005,
the largest single natural disaster in recent years, were $45 billion. Additional federal aid and
reconstruction expenditures were $127 billion.
| Figure 2 - New Madrid Fault |
Earthquake Information on the WVSZ
| Several times in the past century, moderate-to-large earthquakes have been widely felt in the WVSZ | |
| as shown in Figure 1. | ||
| The WVSZ can generate a magnitude 7.1 earthquake according to the USGS. | |
| The region of potential impact due to earthquake activity in the WVSZ is comprised of three states: | |
| Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky. |
| Figure 3 - New Madrid vs. California Earthquakes permission from Prof. Herrmann of St. Louis University |
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| Figure 1 - NMSZ & WVSZ Earthquakes USGS permission, Dr. E. Schweig |
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The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in Southeastern Missouri and the Wabash Valley Seismic
Zone (WVSZ) along Illinois/Indiana border are the biggest threats in the Midwest as shown in
Figure 1, in which larger earthquakes are represented by larger circles. Red circles indicate
location of earthquakes occurred from 1974 to 2002, while green circles for earthquakes prior to
1974. Recent earthquakes such as the 2010 Haiti Earthquake and the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake
in Japan serve as wake-up calls for earthquake preparedness in the Midwestern States that has
lagged far behind California. Earthquake preparedness requires homeowners and small
business owners to be aware of the location of their home/business with respect to the New
Madrid Fault or the WVSZ, areas of soil liquefaction on USGS maps, and knowledge on factors
influencing earthquake damage to their building. In addition, seismic retrofit of home structure and
risk mitigation of home contents would ensure home safety. Earthquake insurance is another
effective way to protect the biggest financial asset (home or business) and investments made in
personal possessions from the potential costs of destructive earthquakes, especially if seismic
retrofit has not been done. Finally, an earthquake preparedness plan requires purchasing an
emergency kit for the household, survival kits for household members, as well as maintaining
survival food and emergency drinking water for at least 2 weeks all-year round.
Zone (WVSZ) along Illinois/Indiana border are the biggest threats in the Midwest as shown in
Figure 1, in which larger earthquakes are represented by larger circles. Red circles indicate
location of earthquakes occurred from 1974 to 2002, while green circles for earthquakes prior to
1974. Recent earthquakes such as the 2010 Haiti Earthquake and the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake
in Japan serve as wake-up calls for earthquake preparedness in the Midwestern States that has
lagged far behind California. Earthquake preparedness requires homeowners and small
business owners to be aware of the location of their home/business with respect to the New
Madrid Fault or the WVSZ, areas of soil liquefaction on USGS maps, and knowledge on factors
influencing earthquake damage to their building. In addition, seismic retrofit of home structure and
risk mitigation of home contents would ensure home safety. Earthquake insurance is another
effective way to protect the biggest financial asset (home or business) and investments made in
personal possessions from the potential costs of destructive earthquakes, especially if seismic
retrofit has not been done. Finally, an earthquake preparedness plan requires purchasing an
emergency kit for the household, survival kits for household members, as well as maintaining
survival food and emergency drinking water for at least 2 weeks all-year round.
New Madrid Earthquake vs. California Earthquakes
| Earthquakes in the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) are less frequent than in the Western | |
| United States (WUS). However, they affect much larger areas because of the regional geology being different east and west of the Rocky Mountains. | ||
| The CEUS is a more stable region in which the energy released from a medium-to-large earthquake | |
| is transmitted into the surrounding regions more efficiently, while the energy is relatively quickly absorbed in the WUS. | ||
| Figure 3 illustrates the affected areas from two large earthquakes of similar magnitude: the 1906 San | |
| Francisco Earthquake whose magnitude was 7.8 and the December 16, 1811 New Madrid Earthquake whose best-estimated magnitude is 7.7. San Francisco Earthquake was felt 350 miles away in the middle of Nevada, while church bells rang in Boston Massachusetts which is 1,000 miles away from the New Madrid Fault. Therefore, seismic activity in the NMSZ and similarly the WVSZ is capable of causing widespread damage over a large region in Midwestern States. |
Structural Damage to Buildings
| Back- and forth- ground shaking, soil amplification, liquefaction, landslides, and | |
| fires are the main reasons for structural damage to buildings. Soil amplification would occur in deep soils of the Mississippi River Valley resulting in stronger ground shaking as compared to shallow stiff alluvial soils on the bedrock. Areas of liquefaction are within: a) The Central Mississippi River Valley including the Reelfoot Scarp, the New Madrid Fault, and the Western Lowlands liquefaction features; and b) The Mississippi and Ohio Rivers Regions including the Wabash Valley and St. Louis-Cape Girardeau liquefaction features. Structural damage is influenced by construction materials, year built, and number of stories, and occurs if the building is not effectively bolted to the concrete foundations, the cripple walls are not braced, or the existence of a soft story in homes with large openings (e.g. garage doors or windows) at the first level without effective bracing. | ||
| The Mid-America Earthquake Center at the University of Illinois at Urbana- | |
| Champaign documented that residential buildings in the Midwest would incur more structural damage than any other building usage. Timber frame houses are the most prevalent residential building type in the Midwest, while unreinforced masonry houses comprise a much smaller portion of the regional building inventory. However, estimates show that structural damage to unreinforced masonry construction are at much higher percentage than wooden houses even from moderate ground shaking. Tennessee alone shows 50,000 moderate-to- severe structural damage of its unreinforced masonry construction from rupture of the southwestern segment of the New Madrid Fault. It is reasonable to assume that several hundred thousand unreinforced masonry buildings could be damaged in the eight Midwestern States if successive ruptures of the three segments occur, as the case of the 1811-1812 series of earthquakes. |
| Personal Survival Kits |
| Household Emergency Kit |
| Emergency Sleeping Bag |
| Emergency Tent |